The escalating crisis in the Middle East could extend the shipping time of Finnish forest products such as pulp to Asia by several weeks. At the same time, freight rates are likely to rise, and container supply may become increasingly unstable.

        According to international media, after Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, several major shipping lines suspended or reduced transits through the Suez Canal and rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope via Africa to Asia.

        The Strait of Hormuz is a critical channel for global oil trade, and its disruption would directly push up energy prices. For Finland’s forestry industry, however, access via the Suez Canal is more direct and vital.

        Maarit Lindström, Director and Chief Economist of Metsäteollisuus ry (Finnish Forest Industries Federation), stated that around 20% of forestry exports are destined for Asia, with most of these goods transported through the Suez Canal.

• Possible delays of several weeks

        If vessels are forced to divert around southern Africa, the voyage will be extended by thousands of kilometers,

potentially delaying deliveries by weeks.

        “If this situation persists, it will affect freight prices and competition for containers,” Lindström said.

        According to industry statistics, approximately half of the products exported to Asia are pulp. Board accounts for 15%, paper for 8%, and wood products for 26%.

        The forestry sector is highly dependent on a well-functioning global logistics chain. Deliveries of pulp and board are usually tied to long-term customer contracts, and on-time delivery is critical to customers’ own production processes. Any delay can therefore have a knock-on effect throughout the value chain.

• Limited but sensitive trade with the Middle East

        Finland’s exports to the Middle East are smaller than those to Asia, but even modest trade flows are affected by disruptions to sea routes. Over the past year, Finland exported wood and paper products worth approximately €3 million to Qatar.

        When main routes are blocked or costs rise, smaller markets are indirectly affected by higher costs and the reallocation of transport capacity.

        Lindström noted that the situation has evolved too recently to fully assess the scale of risks.

        International shipping companies have prepared for potential disruptions, and contingency plans have certainly been established in advance, she said.

        The duration of the disruption will be decisive. Short-term disruptions can be managed through route re-routing and temporarily higher costs. However, if the crisis spreads, especially with continuously rising energy prices, it could weaken the overall competitiveness of the export industry.

        Finland’s forestry sector is one of the country’s most important export industries. Longer delivery times and higher freight costs will therefore affect not only individual companies but also the national trade balance.